IRCC’s recent cap on study permits for 2026—capping new temporary resident applications at around 309,670—has sparked a lot of discussion. People are wondering if this will finally bring down rent or ease job competition. But the reality is messier than a simple cause-and-effect. The impact won’t be the same everywhere, and it’ll take time to show up in the real world.

In big cities like Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal, temporary residents have long played a role in filling housing demand, especially in rental markets. If fewer students and workers come, some landlords might lower rents to attract tenants. But housing supply isn’t adjusting overnight. There’s still a shortage of units, and construction takes years. So even with fewer temporary residents, rent may not drop quickly—especially in high-demand neighborhoods.

At the same time, industries that rely on temporary workers—like hospitality, food service, and some tech roles—may feel the strain. Employers who used to hire international students for part-time roles might now struggle to find staff. But not all sectors are equally affected. Some companies are adapting with automation or local hiring, while others are seeing delays in hiring.

So the big question: Will rent drop first, or will job shortages hit certain sectors harder? And how much of this depends on where you are in Canada? For example, smaller cities with growing universities might see different shifts than major urban centers.

What’s your experience or observation? Are you seeing changes in your area—rent trends, job availability, or school enrollment? Share what you’re noticing, especially if you’re in a city or field that might be affected differently.